Bitcoin Halving Model Suggests $24,000 Bottom Before Year’s End

Some analysts say that the current price action of bitcoin is in line with the halving bitcoin pattern, leading them to expect a drop of $24,000 before the end of the year.

The topic of the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle and its effects on the long-term price of BTC is a hotly debated topic within the crypto community.

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Cryptocurrency analysts have predicted that the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2021. However, it has not reached that level, and now analysts are wondering what will happen in the next six to twelve months.

At the moment, the price of BTC is below $40,000. Several indicators of technical analysis indicate that the price is more likely to fall than it will recover to the $40,000 to $45,000 range. Let’s take a look at what analysts think about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin started the day in the red with a drop of 0.78% | Source: BTC/USD chart from

Bitcoin could drop to $24,000 by the end of the year

Crypto Analyst and Anonymous Twitter Usercipher wolvesFour-year cycle theory on Twitter. This theory suggest That “the most likely bear market bottom for Bitcoin will occur in November/December 2022.”

According to the forecast, Bitcoin made its most recent cycle high by reaching $68,789 on November 10, 2021. So far, the Bitcoin market is in the corrective phase, and it is usually seen after the top of the cycle.

The analyst said:

The 200-week SMA has been the long-tested bearish market bottom indicator for Bitcoin, and therefore, the bottom is likely to be placed around $24,000.

If this model is correct, we will see Bitcoin break its all-time high sometime between August and September of 2023.

Independent market analyst Willy Wu suggested that a bottom for bitcoin could come before the end of 2022. He stated that “the orange looks undervalued here.”

Ultra-fluid supply shock oscillator
Very fluid supply shock oscillator. Source: Twitter

The “liquid severe supply shock” metric measures how much supply and demand have changed from the long-term average.

The chart above shows that when the oscillator dropped to the same level as the current one, the price of Bitcoin rose shortly thereafter.

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Not a bad time for investors to wait for the mean regression law.

BTC at the Lowest Mid-Term Level

Crypto market analyst Philip Swift has suggested that Bitcoin could be in an ideal accumulation range. AASI or Active Heading Sentiment Index indicates this point for the buying zone.

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“AASI is back in the green. This indicates that the bitcoin price change is at a reasonable level relative to the active address change,” Swift said. “This tool has a good hit rate across bulls and bears to indicate a low in the medium term.”

Your current AASI reading is similar to your readings in the past. For example, the price of bitcoin was low at about the same time, and its price increased after a few weeks or months.

In general, Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle, but the increase is occurring at a slower rate than expected.

                     Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview

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