Bitcoin Remains at Risk, Why 100 SMA Is The Key


Bitcoin is still struggling below $41,500 against the US dollar. BTC remains at risk of further downside below the $39,000 support area.

  • Bitcoin is showing bearish signs below $40,500 and $41,500.
  • The price is now trading below $40,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $40,180 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair may extend its decline if there is a clear movement below the $39,000 support area.

Bitcoin price resumes decline

Bitcoin price stays below key $41,500 resistance area. BTC appears to be trading in a range above the $39,000 level and below the $41,500 resistance area.

The last swing low was formed near $39,600 before the price started an upward correction. There was a move above the $40,000 resistance area. The price rose above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downside move from the $41,548 swing high to $39,600 low.

However, the price encountered a strong resistance near the $40,500 level and 100-hour simple moving average. Bitcoin also struggled near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downside move from the $41,548 high to $39,600 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $40,180 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. There is an immediate resistance on the upside near the $40,200 level.

Bitcoin price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance might be $40,380 and the 100 hourly SMA. To start the wave of recovery, the price must cross the $40,380 area and the hourly 100 SMA. In the mentioned case, the price may rise towards the $40,850 resistance area. Any further gains could set the pace for a move towards the major hurdle of $41,500 in the near term.

More losses in bitcoin?

If Bitcoin fails to clear the $40,180 resistance area, it may start dropping again. There is immediate support on the downside near the $39,600 level.

The next major support is seen near the $39,180 level. A break-down below the $39,180 support area could accelerate losses. In the mentioned case, the price could drop towards the level of $38,800 or even $38,500.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing its momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Key support levels – $39,600, followed by $39,180.

The main resistance levels are $40,180, $40,400, and $41,500.



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